CURRENT MATCHUP
Live
American
P
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
R
H
E
38
BOSTON
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
32
NYY
0
1
0
1
4
0
Away
Red Sox
(0 - 0)
ABS
Ball
Walk
Strike
K
Out
Mid
0
-
0
Tue, Sep 29 · Time TBD · Yankee Stadium
Game duration 0:00:00
Home
Yankees
(0 - 0)
ABS
At Bat:George Lombard Jr.
Frame:Bottom 4
Pitching:Payton Tolle
Live Win Probability
Red Sox 34%
66% Yankees

The Yankees lead 1-0 in Bottom 4, which gives them the advantage. The inning, outs and runners on base can still move the number quickly.

Why 66%?

Medium confidence. 7 of 15 model categories are currently supported by data.

Offense Yankees edge · 29% applied

The home club has a slight edge in offense (100 vs 100 wRC+).

Red Sox: 100 wRC+ Yankees: 100 wRC+
  • Team wRC+ (away) 100 MLB Stats API
  • Team wRC+ (home) 100 MLB Stats API
  • Team OPS (away) .717 MLB Stats API
  • Team OPS (home) .720 MLB Stats API
  • Runs per game (away) 4.27 MLB Stats API
  • Runs per game (home) 4.59 MLB Stats API
  • Hard-hit % (away) Unavailable MLB Stats API
  • Hard-hit % (home) Unavailable MLB Stats API
Starting Pitcher Unavailable

One or both probable starters have no stat line yet.

Bullpen Unavailable

Bullpen splits have not been imported for both clubs.

Lineup / Platoon Even edge · 15% applied

Neither club has a meaningful edge in platoon matchups (.733 vs .733 OPS in their stronger split). Starter handedness and confirmed lineups are not wired up, so this is a club-level split rather than a true lineup-versus-starter read.

Red Sox: .733 OPS Yankees: .733 OPS
  • OPS vs LHP (away) .733 MLB Stats API
  • OPS vs RHP (away) .711 MLB Stats API
  • OPS vs LHP (home) .733 MLB Stats API
  • OPS vs RHP (home) .714 MLB Stats API
  • Confirmed lineup Unavailable
  • Platoon advantage count Unavailable
  • WAR missing from lineup Unavailable
Pitch-Type Matchup Unavailable

Pitch usage and hitter results by pitch type are not in the daily snapshot yet, so this category is not scored.

Defense Yankees edge · 15% applied

The home club has a clear edge in defense (.708 vs .728 defensive efficiency). DRS and UZR have no free public source and are left out rather than estimated.

Red Sox: .708 Yankees: .728
  • Defensive efficiency (away) .708 MLB Stats API
  • Defensive efficiency (home) .728 MLB Stats API
  • Outs Above Average (away) 19 MLB Stats API
  • Outs Above Average (home) 1 MLB Stats API
  • Defensive Runs Saved Unavailable
  • UZR Unavailable
Baserunning Unavailable

Needs full player-level import for both clubs; only teams with individual hitter snapshots roll up to a team baserunning total.

Recent Form Even edge · 17% applied

Neither club has a meaningful edge in recent form (5-5 vs 5-5 over ten games). Ten games is a small sample, which is why this is weighted lightly.

Red Sox: 5-5 Yankees: 5-5
  • Last 10 (away) 5-5 MLB Stats API
  • Last 10 (home) 5-5 MLB Stats API
  • Last 5 run differential (away) Unavailable MLB Stats API
  • Last 5 run differential (home) Unavailable MLB Stats API
  • Streak (away) W2 MLB Stats API
  • Streak (home) W1 MLB Stats API
Ballpark Fit Yankees edge · 15% applied

Yankee Stadium plays big for power (114 home run factor). The home club has a slight edge in how this park suits them (.150 vs .170 ISO).

Red Sox: 103 runs Yankees: 114 HR
  • Run park factor 103 MLB park-factor baseline (multi-year estimate)
  • Home run park factor 114 MLB park-factor baseline (multi-year estimate)
  • Double park factor 96 MLB park-factor baseline (multi-year estimate)
  • Team ISO (away) .150 MLB Stats API
  • Team ISO (home) .170 MLB Stats API
Weather Unavailable

No weather feed is wired up, so temperature, wind and carry are not scored.

Rest / Fatigue Unavailable

Travel, days rest and schedule density are not tracked yet.

Injuries Unavailable

There is no injured-list feed, so missing WAR is not scored.

Historical Calibration Red Sox edge · 4% applied

Judged against how this season has actually gone, the rest of the model looks a little high on the home club, by about 5 points. That read is backtested over 52 completed games at 56% accuracy.

Red Sox: +5 pts Yankees: -5 pts
  • Backtest sample size 52 games NumSOX backtest
  • Backtest accuracy 55.8% NumSOX backtest
  • Brier score 0.254 NumSOX backtest
  • Calibration adjustment +5 pts to the Red Sox NumSOX backtest
Regression Risk Unavailable

Needs ERA and FIP for both starters to compare surface results with fielding-independent ones.

Live Game State Yankees edge · 6% applied

The game is under way, so the score, inning, outs and base state are doing most of the work. MLB's per-play model has the home club at 67%.

Red Sox: 33% Yankees: 67%
  • Live win probability (home) 67% MLB Stats API
  • Live win probability (away) 33% MLB Stats API
  • Leverage index 0.52 MLB Stats API
  • Plays scored 26 MLB Stats API
  • Score 0 - 1 MLB Stats API
  • Inning Bottom 4 MLB Stats API
  • Outs 0 MLB Stats API
  • Runners on base Bases empty MLB Stats API
  • Current pitcher Payton Tolle MLB Stats API
  • At bat George Lombard Jr. MLB Stats API
Data Sources & Freshness Source dates by statistic

Each supporting statistic above carries its source and latest available update date. Missing feeds are marked unavailable and do not receive model weight.

Estimate generated Sep 29, 2026 9:22 PM.

This is a custom NumSOX estimate based on baseball statistics, not a betting line or a prediction of certainty.

Ballpark Factor
Yankee Stadium
Yankee Stadium plays big for power (114 home run factor). The home club has a slight edge in how this park suits them (.150 vs .170 ISO).
103
Runs
114
HR
96
2B
95
LF HR
126
RF HR
Full matchup analysis Ballpark factors
Previous Game
Cubs @ Red Sox Sun, Sep 27 Loss · Final
American
P
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
R
H
E
CUBS
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
3
6
13
0
BOSTON
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
5
1
CUBS Win 6 to 2
Red Sox Season at a Glance
Record
87-75
10th in MLB
3rd in AL
Run Differential
+82
6th in MLB
2nd in AL
Team OPS
0.717
T-17th in MLB
T-8th in AL
Team ERA
3.52
T-2nd in MLB
2nd in AL
Bullpen ERA
2.89
2nd in MLB
1st in AL
wRC+
100
100 = league avg
16th in MLB
8th in AL
Last 10
5-5
T-12th in MLB
T-6th in AL
Series Wins
24
Series record 24-26-2
T-15th in MLB
T-5th in AL
Series Sweeps
12
Swept in 5
3rd in MLB
2nd in AL
OPS vs LHP
0.733
Batting 0.248
OPS vs RHP
0.711
Batting 0.244
Hits lefties better by 0.022
Streak
L1
T-15th in MLB
T-10th in AL
League Standings
‹
June 14, 2026
Day 82 of 183
›
Days
per sec
Historical standings are rebuilt from every club's game results.
American League
AL East
TeamWLPCTGBWCGB L10STRKRSRADIFF HomeAwayX-W/L
DIV Yankees 43 27 .614 - - 7-3 W2 358 251 +107 19-12 24-15 46-24
WC1 Rays 41 27 .603 1.0 +7.5 5-5 W1 308 300 +8 24-9 17-18 35-33
Blue Jays 34 38 .472 10.0 1.5 5-5 L2 293 315 -22 21-18 13-20 34-38
Orioles 34 39 .466 10.5 2.0 4-6 L2 343 376 -33 22-19 12-20 33-40
Red Sox 29 40 .420 13.5 5.0 4-6 L1 278 282 -4 12-22 17-18 34-35
AL Central
TeamWLPCTGBWCGB L10STRKRSRADIFF HomeAwayX-W/L
DIV White Sox 38 32 .543 - - 6-4 W1 333 321 +12 24-12 14-20 36-34
WC2 Guardians 39 33 .542 - +3.5 4-6 W2 289 292 -3 19-17 20-16 36-36
Twins 33 40 .452 6.5 3.0 4-6 W1 338 380 -42 20-19 13-21 33-40
Tigers 29 42 .408 9.5 6.0 6-4 L2 288 300 -12 18-16 11-26 34-37
Royals 29 43 .403 10.0 6.5 5-5 W1 288 337 -49 17-21 12-22 31-41
AL West
TeamWLPCTGBWCGB L10STRKRSRADIFF HomeAwayX-W/L
DIV Mariners 37 36 .507 - - 4-6 L2 311 291 +20 19-16 18-20 39-34
WC3 Rangers 35 36 .493 1.0 - 5-5 W1 285 279 +6 17-14 18-22 36-35
Athletics 35 36 .493 1.0 - 5-5 L1 320 371 -51 15-19 20-17 31-40
Astros 33 40 .452 4.0 3.0 5-5 L1 333 372 -39 16-19 17-21 33-40
Angels 29 43 .403 7.5 6.5 6-4 L1 323 361 -38 17-20 12-23 32-40
National League
NL East
TeamWLPCTGBWCGB L10STRKRSRADIFF HomeAwayX-W/L
DIV Braves 46 25 .648 - - 5-5 L1 359 252 +107 22-11 24-14 47-24
WC2 Phillies 38 33 .535 8.0 +0.5 6-4 L1 285 308 -23 19-17 19-16 33-38
Nationals 37 35 .514 9.5 1.0 6-4 W2 392 379 +13 14-21 23-14 37-35
Marlins 36 36 .500 10.5 2.0 8-2 W1 310 310 0 23-16 13-20 36-36
Mets 32 39 .451 14.0 5.5 6-4 W1 288 299 -11 18-18 14-21 34-37
NL Central
TeamWLPCTGBWCGB L10STRKRSRADIFF HomeAwayX-W/L
DIV Brewers 43 26 .623 - - 6-4 W1 370 258 +112 23-14 20-12 45-24
WC1 Cardinals 38 31 .551 5.0 +1.5 7-3 L1 319 307 +12 19-16 19-15 36-33
Cubs 37 35 .514 7.5 1.0 5-5 L1 329 320 +9 20-15 17-20 37-35
Pirates 36 36 .500 8.5 2.0 3-7 L1 359 345 +14 20-19 16-17 37-35
Reds 33 37 .471 10.5 4.0 2-8 L1 293 351 -58 17-18 16-19 29-41
NL West
TeamWLPCTGBWCGB L10STRKRSRADIFF HomeAwayX-W/L
DIV Dodgers 45 27 .625 - - 5-5 L1 386 245 +141 22-12 23-15 50-22
WC3 Padres 37 33 .529 7.0 - 5-5 W2 272 282 -10 19-19 18-14 34-36
Diamondbacks 36 35 .507 8.5 1.5 4-6 W1 300 320 -20 21-14 15-21 33-38
Giants 29 43 .403 16.0 9.0 5-5 W1 296 352 -56 14-20 15-23 30-42
Rockies 27 45 .375 18.0 11.0 3-7 W1 329 419 -90 14-20 13-25 28-44
Recent & Upcoming Games
DateOpponentH/AVenueScoreResultStatus
Mar 26 Reds Away Great American Ball Park 3-0 W Final
Mar 28 Reds Away Great American Ball Park 5-6 L Final
Mar 29 Reds Away Great American Ball Park 2-3 L Final
Mar 30 Astros Away Daikin Park 1-8 L Final
Mar 31 Astros Away Daikin Park 2-9 L Final
Apr 1 Astros Away Daikin Park 4-6 L Final
Apr 3 Padres Home Fenway Park 5-2 W Final
Apr 4 Padres Home Fenway Park 2-3 L Final
Apr 5 Padres Home Fenway Park 6-8 L Final
Apr 6 Brewers Home Fenway Park 6-8 L Final
Apr 7 Brewers Home Fenway Park 3-2 W Final
Apr 8 Brewers Home Fenway Park 5-0 W Final
Apr 10 Cardinals Away Busch Stadium 2-3 L Final
Apr 11 Cardinals Away Busch Stadium 7-1 W Final
Apr 12 Cardinals Away Busch Stadium 9-3 W Final
Apr 13 Twins Away Target Field 6-13 L Final
Apr 14 Twins Away Target Field 0-6 L Final
Apr 15 Twins Away Target Field 9-5 W Final
Apr 17 Tigers Home Fenway Park 1-0 W Final
Apr 18 Tigers Home Fenway Park 1-4 L Final
Apr 19 Tigers Home Fenway Park 2-6 L Final
Apr 20 Tigers Home Fenway Park 8-6 W Final
Apr 21 Yankees Home Fenway Park 0-4 L Final
Apr 22 Yankees Home Fenway Park 1-4 L Final
Apr 23 Yankees Home Fenway Park 2-4 L Final
Apr 24 Orioles Away Oriole Park at Camden Yards 3-10 L Final
Apr 25 Orioles Away Oriole Park at Camden Yards 17-1 W Final
Apr 26 Orioles Away Oriole Park at Camden Yards 5-3 W Final
Apr 27 Blue Jays Away Rogers Centre 5-0 W Final
Apr 28 Blue Jays Away Rogers Centre 0-3 L Final
Apr 29 Blue Jays Away Rogers Centre 1-8 L Final
May 1 Astros Home Fenway Park 3-1 W Final
May 2 Astros Home Fenway Park 3-6 L Final
May 3 Astros Home Fenway Park 1-3 L Final
May 4 Tigers Away Comerica Park 5-4 W Final
May 5 Tigers Away Comerica Park 10-3 W Final
May 6 Tigers Away Comerica Park 4-0 W Final
May 7 Rays Home Fenway Park 4-8 L Final
May 8 Rays Home Fenway Park 2-0 W Final
May 10 Rays Home Fenway Park 1-4 L Final
May 12 Phillies Home Fenway Park 1-2 L Final
May 13 Phillies Home Fenway Park 3-1 W Final
May 14 Phillies Home Fenway Park 1-3 L Final
May 15 Braves Away Truist Park 2-3 L Final
May 16 Braves Away Truist Park 3-2 W Final
May 17 Braves Away Truist Park 1-8 L Final
May 18 Royals Away Kauffman Stadium 3-1 W Final
May 19 Royals Away Kauffman Stadium 7-1 W Final
May 20 Royals Away Kauffman Stadium 4-3 W Final
May 22 Twins Home Fenway Park 6-8 L Final
May 23 Twins Home Fenway Park 2-4 L Final
May 24 Twins Home Fenway Park 5-6 L Final
May 26 Braves Home Fenway Park 6-7 L Final
May 27 Braves Home Fenway Park 8-0 W Final
May 28 Braves Home Fenway Park 2-10 L Final
May 29 Guardians Away Progressive Field 3-4 L Final
May 30 Guardians Away Progressive Field 9-1 W Final
May 31 Guardians Away Progressive Field 9-4 W Final
Jun 2 Orioles Home Fenway Park 2-4 L Final
Jun 3 Orioles Home Fenway Park 8-1 W Final
Jun 4 Orioles Home Fenway Park 2-8 L Final
Jun 5 Yankees Away Yankee Stadium 5-3 W Final
Jun 7 Yankees Away Yankee Stadium 1-6 L Final
Jun 8 Rays Away Tropicana Field 1-3 L Final
Jun 9 Rays Away Tropicana Field 3-4 L Final
Jun 10 Rays Away Tropicana Field 5-7 L Final
Jun 12 Rangers Home Fenway Park 10-1 W Final
Jun 13 Rangers Home Fenway Park 6-3 W Final
Jun 14 Rangers Home Fenway Park 4-6 L Final
Jun 16 Blue Jays Home Fenway Park 1-6 L Final
Jun 17 Blue Jays Home Fenway Park 0-3 L Final
Jun 18 Blue Jays Home Fenway Park 3-4 L Final
Jun 19 Mariners Away T-Mobile Park 6-2 W Final
Jun 20 Mariners Away T-Mobile Park 5-1 W Final
Jun 21 Mariners Away T-Mobile Park 1-3 L Final
Jun 22 Rockies Away Coors Field 2-3 L Final
Jun 23 Rockies Away Coors Field 5-2 W Final
Jun 24 Rockies Away Coors Field 6-8 L Final
Jun 25 Yankees Home Fenway Park 6-3 W Final
Jun 26 Yankees Home Fenway Park 6-1 W Final
Jun 27 Yankees Home Fenway Park 4-1 W Final
Jun 28 Yankees Home Fenway Park 5-4 W Final
Jun 29 Nationals Home Fenway Park 6-3 W Final
Jun 30 Nationals Home Fenway Park 1-8 L Final
Jul 1 Nationals Home Fenway Park 2-10 L Final
Jul 3 Angels Away Angel Stadium 5-2 W Final
Jul 4 Angels Away Angel Stadium 8-1 W Final
Jul 5 Angels Away Angel Stadium 7-5 W Final
Jul 7 White Sox Away Rate Field 8-1 W Final
Jul 8 White Sox Away Rate Field 5-0 W Final
Jul 9 White Sox Away Rate Field 2-1 W Final
Jul 10 Mets Away Citi Field 6-2 W Final
Jul 11 Mets Away Citi Field 4-0 W Final
Jul 12 Mets Away Citi Field 3-2 W Final
Jul 17 Rays Home Fenway Park 10-0 W Final
Jul 17 Rays Home Fenway Park 5-3 W Final
Jul 18 Rays Home Fenway Park 7-6 W Final
Jul 19 Rays Home Fenway Park 6-1 W Final
Jul 20 Orioles Home Fenway Park 6-5 W Final
Jul 22 Orioles Home Fenway Park 6-3 W Final
Jul 22 Orioles Home Fenway Park 1-5 L Final
Jul 24 Blue Jays Home Fenway Park 6-4 W Final
Jul 25 Blue Jays Home Fenway Park 0-6 L Final
Jul 26 Blue Jays Home Fenway Park 6-1 W Final
Jul 27 Athletics Away Sutter Health Park 4-2 W Final
Jul 28 Athletics Away Sutter Health Park 3-4 L Final
Jul 29 Athletics Away Sutter Health Park 4-2 W Final
Jul 30 Athletics Away Sutter Health Park 5-4 W Final
Jul 31 Dodgers Away UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 9-4 W Final
Aug 1 Dodgers Away UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 3-2 W Final
Aug 2 Dodgers Away UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 8-4 W Final
Aug 4 White Sox Home Fenway Park 14-2 W Final
Aug 5 White Sox Home Fenway Park 4-0 W Final
Aug 6 White Sox Home Fenway Park 12-11 W Final
Aug 7 Athletics Home Fenway Park 13-1 W Final
Aug 8 Athletics Home Fenway Park 3-7 L Final
Aug 9 Athletics Home Fenway Park 3-4 L Final
Aug 10 Blue Jays Away Rogers Centre 1-2 L Final
Aug 11 Blue Jays Away Rogers Centre 3-5 L Final
Aug 12 Blue Jays Away Rogers Centre 4-6 L Final
Aug 13 Blue Jays Away Rogers Centre 7-0 W Final
Aug 14 Pirates Away PNC Park 4-8 L Final
Aug 15 Pirates Away PNC Park 4-0 W Final
Aug 16 Pirates Away PNC Park 3-8 L Final
Aug 17 Diamondbacks Home Fenway Park 11-1 W Final
Aug 18 Diamondbacks Home Fenway Park 9-4 W Final
Aug 19 Diamondbacks Home Fenway Park 6-7 L Final
Aug 21 Giants Home Fenway Park 6-4 W Final
Aug 22 Giants Home Fenway Park 3-2 W Final
Aug 23 Giants Home Fenway Park 5-4 W Final
Aug 24 Marlins Away loanDepot park 4-2 W Final
Aug 25 Marlins Away loanDepot park 7-3 W Final
Aug 26 Marlins Away loanDepot park 0-4 L Final
Aug 28 Yankees Away Yankee Stadium 0-1 L Final
Aug 29 Yankees Away Yankee Stadium 6-0 W Final
Aug 29 Yankees Away Yankee Stadium 2-9 L Final
Aug 30 Yankees Away Yankee Stadium 1-16 L Final
Aug 31 Mariners Home Fenway Park 9-8 W Final
Sep 1 Mariners Home Fenway Park 6-9 L Final
Sep 2 Mariners Home Fenway Park 3-8 L Final
Sep 3 Orioles Away Oriole Park at Camden Yards 6-5 W Final
Sep 4 Orioles Away Oriole Park at Camden Yards 1-0 W Final
Sep 5 Orioles Away Oriole Park at Camden Yards 5-0 W Final
Sep 6 Orioles Away Oriole Park at Camden Yards 3-1 W Final
Sep 7 Angels Home Fenway Park 5-2 W Final
Sep 8 Angels Home Fenway Park 1-6 L Final
Sep 9 Angels Home Fenway Park 4-6 L Final
Sep 11 Royals Home Fenway Park 2-3 L Final
Sep 12 Royals Home Fenway Park 5-1 W Final
Sep 13 Royals Home Fenway Park 4-1 W Final
Sep 15 Rangers Away Globe Life Field 2-4 L Final
Sep 16 Rangers Away Globe Life Field 3-7 L Final
Sep 17 Rangers Away Globe Life Field 4-3 W Final
Sep 18 Rays Away Tropicana Field 4-2 W Final
Sep 19 Rays Away Tropicana Field 1-2 L Final
Sep 20 Rays Away Tropicana Field 1-5 L Final
Sep 22 Guardians Home Fenway Park 2-3 L Final
Sep 23 Guardians Home Fenway Park 1-0 W Final
Sep 24 Guardians Home Fenway Park 0-1 L Final
Sep 25 Cubs Home Fenway Park 4-3 W Final
Sep 25 Cubs Home Fenway Park 2-0 W Final
Sep 27 Cubs Home Tropicana Field 2-6 L Final
Sep 29 Yankees Away Yankee Stadium Time TBD SCH Scheduled
Sep 30 Yankees Away Yankee Stadium Time TBD SCH Scheduled
Oct 1 Yankees Away Yankee Stadium Time TBD SCH Scheduled
All Games Matchup Center Player Stats