The Rays have a strong edge because their starting pitching and how sustainable their pitching has been are stronger overall. The Red Sox have the advantage in the bullpen, which is their main counterweight.
Why 61%?
9 of 15 categories could be scored from the data on file. The 6 unscored categories are listed openly rather than guessed at, and their weight is shared across the categories that could be measured.
Offense
The home club has a slight edge in offense (100 vs 102 wRC+).
- Team wRC+ (away) 100 MLB Stats API
- Team wRC+ (home) 102 MLB Stats API
- Team OPS (away) .717 MLB Stats API
- Team OPS (home) .725 MLB Stats API
- Runs per game (away) 4.27 MLB Stats API
- Runs per game (home) 4.51 MLB Stats API
- Hard-hit % (away) Unavailable MLB Stats API
- Hard-hit % (home) Unavailable MLB Stats API
Starting Pitcher
The home club has a strong edge in starting pitching (4.53 vs 4.09 FIP).
- Starter FIP (away) 4.53 MLB Stats API
- Starter FIP (home) 4.09 MLB Stats API
- K-BB% (away) 15.0 MLB Stats API
- K-BB% (home) 22.2 MLB Stats API
- WHIP (away) 1.23 MLB Stats API
- WHIP (home) 1.13 MLB Stats API
- Opponent OPS (away) .706 MLB Stats API
- Opponent OPS (home) .721 MLB Stats API
Bullpen
The away club has a strong edge in the bullpen (2.89 vs 4.03 bullpen ERA). Recent workload and closer availability are not tracked, so this is season-long form only.
- Bullpen FIP (away) 3.33 MLB Stats API
- Bullpen FIP (home) 5.62 MLB Stats API
- Bullpen ERA (away) 2.89 MLB Stats API
- Bullpen ERA (home) 4.03 MLB Stats API
- Bullpen WHIP (away) 1.41 MLB Stats API
- Bullpen WHIP (home) 1.34 MLB Stats API
- Relievers used last 3 days Unavailable
- Closer availability Unavailable
Lineup / Platoon
The home club has a clear edge in platoon matchups (.733 vs .748 OPS in their stronger split). Starter handedness and confirmed lineups are not wired up, so this is a club-level split rather than a true lineup-versus-starter read.
- OPS vs LHP (away) .733 MLB Stats API
- OPS vs RHP (away) .711 MLB Stats API
- OPS vs LHP (home) .679 MLB Stats API
- OPS vs RHP (home) .748 MLB Stats API
- Confirmed lineup Unavailable
- Platoon advantage count Unavailable
- WAR missing from lineup Unavailable
Pitch-Type Matchup
Pitch usage and hitter results by pitch type are not in the daily snapshot yet, so this category is not scored.
Defense
The home club has a strong edge in defense (.708 vs .739 defensive efficiency). DRS and UZR have no free public source and are left out rather than estimated.
- Defensive efficiency (away) .708 MLB Stats API
- Defensive efficiency (home) .739 MLB Stats API
- Outs Above Average (away) 20 MLB Stats API
- Outs Above Average (home) 9 MLB Stats API
- Defensive Runs Saved Unavailable
- UZR Unavailable
Baserunning
Needs full player-level import for both clubs; only teams with individual hitter snapshots roll up to a team baserunning total.
Recent Form
The home club has a clear edge in recent form (5-5 vs 6-4 over ten games). Ten games is a small sample, which is why this is weighted lightly.
- Last 10 (away) 5-5 MLB Stats API
- Last 10 (home) 6-4 MLB Stats API
- Last 5 run differential (away) Unavailable MLB Stats API
- Last 5 run differential (home) Unavailable MLB Stats API
- Streak (away) W2 MLB Stats API
- Streak (home) W1 MLB Stats API
Ballpark Fit
Tropicana Field suppresses home runs (92 home run factor). The home club has a slight edge in how this park suits them (.150 vs .140 ISO).
- Run park factor 95 MLB park-factor baseline (multi-year estimate)
- Home run park factor 92 MLB park-factor baseline (multi-year estimate)
- Double park factor 97 MLB park-factor baseline (multi-year estimate)
- Team ISO (away) .150 MLB Stats API
- Team ISO (home) .140 MLB Stats API
Weather
No weather feed is wired up, so temperature, wind and carry are not scored.
Rest / Fatigue
Travel, days rest and schedule density are not tracked yet.
Injuries
There is no injured-list feed, so missing WAR is not scored.
Historical Calibration
Judged against how this season has actually gone, the rest of the model looks a little high on the home club, by about 6 points. That read is backtested over 52 completed games at 56% accuracy.
- Backtest sample size 52 games NumSOX backtest
- Backtest accuracy 55.8% NumSOX backtest
- Brier score 0.254 NumSOX backtest
- Calibration adjustment +6 pts to the Red Sox NumSOX backtest
Regression Risk
The away starter's ERA is running well under his FIP, which suggests he has been getting some help.
- Starter ERA (away) 3.33 MLB Stats API
- Starter FIP (away) 4.53 MLB Stats API
- Starter ERA (home) 4.22 MLB Stats API
- Starter FIP (home) 4.09 MLB Stats API
- Team BABIP (away) Unavailable MLB Stats API
- Team BABIP (home) Unavailable MLB Stats API
Live Game State
The game has not started, so score, inning and base state carry no weight yet.
Data Sources & Freshness
Each supporting statistic above carries its source and latest available update date. Missing feeds are marked unavailable and do not receive model weight.
Estimate generated Sep 26, 2026 6:05 PM.
This is a custom NumSOX estimate based on baseball statistics, not a betting line or a prediction of certainty.
- Bullpen (2.89 ERA)
- Historical Calibration (+6 pts)
- Offense (100 wRC+)
- Starting Pitcher (4.53 FIP)
- Lineup / Platoon (.733 OPS)
- Defense (.708)
- Recent Form (5-5)
- Regression Risk (-1.20 ERA-FIP)
- Offense (102 wRC+)
- Starting Pitcher (4.09 FIP)
- Lineup / Platoon (.748 OPS)
- Defense (.739)
- Recent Form (6-4)
- Regression Risk (+0.13 ERA-FIP)
- Bullpen (4.03 ERA)
- Historical Calibration (-6 pts)